I am Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Copenhagen. I am interested in:
1. Decision-making under uncertainty. I am particularly interested in foreign policy decision-making during crises and conflicts, with a focus on individual leaders.
2. Security challenges in NATO’s Eastern and Southern flanks. I am especially interested in foreign and security policies of Russia and Turkey, from the Baltic Sea to Black Sea to the Eastern Mediterranean.
3. Forecasting and strategic foresight. I have a long-standing interest in forecasting and was a Superforecaster in IARPA-sponsored Geopolitical Forecasting Competition run by Good Judgment. Currently I am a “Professional Superforecaster” for Good Judgment, Inc. I also have experience in scenario planning and other forms of foresight activities. I am currently teaching a Master’s course on “Forecasting in International Politics” at the University of Copenhagen.
Theoretically my research is inspired by Realism (especially classical and neoclassical realism) and the English School. Methodologically, I adopt an eclectic approach and used a variety of qualitative and quantitative methods in my research, from game theory to archival work to automated text analysis and statistical models.
My latest research project is titled "Microfoundations of International Order" and is funded by EU Horizon 2020 programme (Grant no:704626).
Please see my CV or visit my Google Scholar profile for more. You can also follow me on Twitter. For consulting and media inquiries please send me an email.